Water GenbuTier 1
at EU Nationals 2025
decks
8
(12.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
55
21-21-13
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.1%
avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
49.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1368
· median 1382
· range 1185–1584
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1253
Q3 1436
1584
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.6% | 12 | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 46.9% | 48.3% | -0.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 9 | 2-5-2 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 42.3% | -3.5 |
| Wind Allies | 11.1% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 66.0% | +8.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.9% | 6 | 1-1-4 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.1% | +3.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 71.1% | +12.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.9% | +10.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.0% | -16.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.2% | +24.4 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.8% | -24.3 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 6 | 1-2-3 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 38.1% | -6.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Glacial Evocation, Strategem of Myriad Ice, Frozen Dismissal. Losers more often ran: Song of Frost, Conniving Plans, Resonating Fugue.
Glacial Evocation
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Strategem of Myriad Ice
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Frozen Dismissal
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Tidal Lock
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Primordial Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Aqueous Stallion
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Conniving Plans
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Resonating Fugue
Losing decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
winning decks 3.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Portentous Tanggu
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Rippleback Terrapin
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 48 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glacial Evocation | +0.67 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Think Deep | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissonant Fractal | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incandescent Reliquary | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Heaven | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Moontide Illusionist | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glimmering Refusal | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Young Beastbonder | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |